Inferring probable distributional gaps and climate change impacts on the medically important viper Echis leucogaster in the western Sahara-Sahel: An ecological niche modeling approach

Abstract

Abstract. Bouam I, Khelfaoui F, Saoudi M. 2022. Inferring probable distributional gaps and climate change impacts on the medically important viper Echis leucogaster in the western Sahara-Sahel: An ecological niche modeling approach. Biodiversitas 23: 5175-5183. Knowledge of biodiversity distribution and how climate change may affect species across the Sahara-Sahel is scarce despite it harboring both high biodiversity and a high rate of endemism. As ectotherms, snakes are particularly vulnerable to climate change and susceptible to range shifts and demographic changes driven by climate change. Ecological niche models are a common method for predicting the probability of the occurrence of species and future range shifts induced by climate change. This study examines the probable gaps in the distribution of the white-bellied saw-scaled viper, Echis leucogaster, and the potential influence of climate change on its future geographic range in the western Sahara-Sahel. The currently predicted environmentally suitable areas fitted well with the known geographical range of the species showed relative congruence with the Sahara-Sahel ecoregion delineations and identified areas without known occurrences. In the future, the environmental conditions for the occurrence of E. leucogaster are predicted to increase, as the environmentally suitable areas will potentially experience an increase in their proportion. Future projections also showed that the potentially suitable areas might undergo moderate southward shifts during the late twenty-first century. The results of the present study significantly expand our knowledge on the potential distribution of E. leucogaster and provide valuable insights to guide future sampling efforts and conservation planning for the species.