Spatio-temporal distribution of native melliferous trees under climate change and their consequences for apiculture and pollinator conservation in the Republic of Benin
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Abstract. Amakpe F, Amalia CA, Sinsin B, Fandohan AB. 2025. Spatio-temporal distribution of native melliferous trees under climate change and their consequences for apiculture and pollinator conservation in the Republic of Benin. Asian J For 9: 264-272. Climate change poses major threats to biodiversity, including the distribution of melliferous trees that sustain beekeeping and pollinator populations. In tropical regions such as the Republic of Benin (Benin), where dry-season bushfires destroy most herbaceous plants, honeybees rely heavily on perennial trees. This study assessed the impacts of climate change on the distribution of 87 native melliferous trees using the MaxEnt prediction model. The occurrence data were derived from nationwide forest survey plots. The environmental baseline data covered 1990 to 2021, and the predictive parameters covered 2041 to 2070. More than 50% of the country's territory was predicted to become unsuitable for melliferous trees by the 2070 horizon. The moderately suitable area that represented 22.92% of the country's territory will drop to 19.69% and the central parts will concentrate the highly suitable areas. The southern and northern extremities will remain unsuitable areas. The southward expansion of the unsuitable area in the Sudanian regions revealed the future bad beekeeping conditions in these areas, where deforestation is of great concern. The length of the dry season, potential evapotranspiration, and temperature seasonality were the most influential environmental variables shaping tree distribution. These shifts imply worsening conditions for apiculture and pollinator conservation, especially in northern Benin, where land degradation and deforestation are already severe. Strategic reforestation programs prioritizing native species, coupled with sustainable landscape management, will be essential for safeguarding pollinator services and ensuring the long-term viability of beekeeping in the region.
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